Keywords
technological governance
predictive policing
strategic intelligence
predictive criminology
How to Cite
Abstract
In this article, the authors analyze the development of predictive criminology in Spain from a strategic perspective, presenting it as an interdisciplinary field at the intersection of applied criminology, data science, and police intelligence. The paper proposes understanding predictive criminology as an integrated institutional intelligence tool that must be developed within robust ethical, legal, and operational frameworks. The analysis examines the Spanish case and its main experiences, comparing them with the international context. The absence of an articulated national strategy is identified as the main weakness, despite existing technical potential. Through a PESTEL prospective analysis and scenario construction, the study identifies the main drivers of the field and outlines three main scenarios: "irregular progress" (trend scenario), "systemic integration" (positive scenario), and "fragmentation and public distrust" (negative scenario). Finally, the technical, operational, ethical, and strategic limitations of these technologies are addressed, warning about risks such as excessive dependence on technology, algorithmic biases, and lack of governance.
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